Predictions
01
Market predictions with the mechanism behind them, the evidence for and against, and the condition that would prove each one wrong. Each carries instruments read on a cadence. None carries a resolution date, because the date evidence arrives is not something anyone can predict.
A prediction ends one of four ways: confirmed when the falsifier could no longer fire, transformed when the market moves along a different path and it keeps its history, contradicted by direct evidence, or retired after twelve months of silence.
How a signal becomes a prediction → the method, the gates and the lifecycle
02
Every vendor charging per employee is selling against a number that is no longer rising, and the market has already priced it.
Rating A Live 3 checks 8 counted signals
AI cannot be priced until correctness is proved, and correctness is not being measured, so the value is being taken on the cost line instead.
Rating A Live 4 checks 6 counted signals
What an agent is allowed to touch decides where it can be deployed. The market resolved the question in four days.
Rating B Live 2 checks 9 counted signals
The evaluation is collapsing into somebody else's, and the moment a growing business used to switch is being deliberately removed.
Rating B Live 4 checks 14 counted signals
Compensable time is a payroll term. The system that decides who works which shift is upstream of gross-to-net, whether or not it calls itself payroll.
Rating B Live 3 checks 2 counted signals
UK payroll rules now change mostly through guidance, specifications and enforcement, and none of those arrives on the calendar a vendor's release plan is built around.
Rating B Live 1 checks 3 counted signals